Special Report, Lifestyle, Americas

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Their analysis of the research published before March2013 found that the tools “were moderate at best in terms of predictive validity,” Desmarais said in an interview. And she could not find any substantial set of studies conducted in the United States that examined whether risk scores were racially biased. “The data do not exist,” she said. The largest examination of racial bias in U.S. 2016 paper by Jennifer Skeem at University of California, Berkeley and Christopher T. Lowenkamp from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. They examined data about 34,000 federal offenders to test the predictive validity of the Post Conviction Risk Assessment tool that was developed by the federal courts to help probation and parole officers determine the level of supervision required for an inmate upon release. The authors found that the average risk score for black offenders was higher than for white offenders, but that concluded the differences were not attributable to bias.|But Putin’s greatest advantage is self-belief. Serious historians may scoff at his elaborate historical theories about Ukraine’s nonexistence as a true state. But he believes it, or at least he makes a convincing show of it. What, really, does the West believe about Ukraine, other than that it would be a shame, and scary, if Putin were to swallow large chunks of it? Certainly nothing worth fighting for. Most of us understand that history has a way of turning into myth, but the reverse can also be true: Myths have a way of making history. Fortune also tends to favor fervent believers. The United States used to have self-belief. Our civilization, multiple generations of Americans believed, represented human progress. Our political ideals - about the rule of law, human rights, individual liberties, democratic governance - were ideals for all people, including those beyond our borders. Our literature spoke to the universal human experience; our music to the universal soul. When we fought wars, it was for grand moral purposes, not avaricious aims. Even our worst blunders, as in Vietnam, stemmed from defensible principles. Our sins were real and numerous, but they were correctable flaws, not systemic features. It goes without saying that this self-belief - like all belief - was a mixture of truth and conceit, idealism and hubris, vision and blindness. It led us to make all sorts of errors, the acute awareness of which has become the dominant strain of our intellectual life. But it also led us to our great triumphs: Yorktown and Appomattox; the 13th and 19th Amendments; the Berlin Airlift and the fall of the Berlin Wall; the Marshall Plan and PEPFAR.




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